Welp - I think you said it perfectly. And you're spot on. It was impulse. That said, our kids lost it when we told them we're getting rid of the Odyssey... so that tells me we might have a few more years of van life to go! Appreciate the clarity you brought to the situation!The numbers look fine -- in my opinion, the question you need to answer is: do you want to trade from a van to an SUV? Your comment above makes it sound like you hadn't really considered trading your van until you discovered what it was worth. Is this an impulse purchase or a move you've been looking to make for a while? In my opinion, nothing beats the space and comfort of a van (even a Pilot!) and the Odyssey of course has a very similar drivetrain to the 2022 Pilot you're considering (just FWD vs. AWD). On the other hand, if you're looking for AWD, then that's a certain upgrade over the Odyssey.
We recently bought the same Pilot you're considering (ours has the beige interior) and we did end up selling our car to Carmax. As you noted regarding tax, the price differential wasn't as great as it first appeared on the surface due to the sales taxes paid at the dealer, but our Honda dealer really low-balled our trade and wouldn't come up much, so we still came out money ahead at Carmax. Carmax bought our 2020 Subaru Ascent for more than we paid for it in March of 2020 -- the car market is pretty crazy right now. We paid exactly MSRP for our Pilot.